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The 2026 primaries likely to shape the Pennsylvania House and Senate

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Pennsylvania鈥檚 capitol building in Harrisburg on the morning of Election Day in November 2020. [Amanda Berg / For Spotlight PA]

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HARRISBURG 鈥 This spring, Pennsylvanians will vote in primary elections that will have huge ramifications for the way the state House and Senate look next year.

That鈥檚 why Spotlight PA analyzed all 228 legislative primaries 鈥 many of which are uncontested 鈥 on the May 19 ballot to pinpoint which are the likeliest to be competitive, impactful, or otherwise worth watching.

The general election in November is each legislative chamber. But as in Pennsylvania鈥檚 General Assembly, a primary may be the only serious election a candidate faces before winning public office. The attitude and ideology of primary winners can shape what issues the legislature approaches 鈥 from to 鈥 and how the body addresses them.

In Pennsylvania, primaries are open only to , meaning a fraction of a district鈥檚 voters can decide the outcome. Each major party鈥檚 leaders may also work to avoid contested primaries, to save energy and money for November. Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, for instance, described his distaste for primaries in his memoir, noting a past one that 鈥渏ust sucked, as it always does when you are fighting with your own people and party.鈥

But primaries are also powerful, providing a chance for a party鈥檚 voters (and well-heeled interest groups) to review the records of sitting elected officials or newcomers seeking office. They are also hard to predict, as each race is unique to its district and candidates.

鈥淲ithout a D or an R next to a candidate鈥檚 name the biggest cue voters use to make their choices is gone, making the choice about some other factors that are less clear,鈥 said Christopher Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College, in an email to Spotlight PA.

鈥淚ncumbency, name recognition, policy positions and individual identities like gender, race and age are all elevated in importance in primaries and how voters prioritize these factors becomes key,鈥 he added.

State Rep. Bryan Cutler (R., Lancaster), a former House Speaker who took office by primarying an incumbent, added that 鈥渢he general idea of facing the electorate, in a primary and general, is what our commonwealth is built on.鈥

As leader, he oversaw the passage of the state鈥檚 mail voting law, the legislative response to COVID-19, and several budget deals. Those compromises two unsuccessful primary challenges against him, Cutler said. But the job of state representatives, he argued, 鈥渋s to govern, not get reelected.鈥

Read on for more detail about Spotlight PA鈥檚 rundown of primaries worth monitoring. The list is based on data from past elections and conversations with more than a dozen sources in both major parties, who requested anonymity to candidly discuss races.

Exclusion from this list does not mean a primary race isn鈥檛 important or won鈥檛 be close. As circumstances evolve and Spotlight PA becomes aware of new information, races may be added. Candidate slates are up to date as of noon March 27, though some ballot challenges are ongoing.

Primaries against sitting state lawmakers

Serious primary challenges to incumbents often elicit a mix of frustration and dread in Harrisburg. Victories against sitting officials can embolden interest groups and make lawmakers think twice before making deals on tough issues. A primary loss for an established legislator can also help competitive seats flip from one party to another in the general election.

These dynamics are prominent in the primaries against Republican state Sens. Camera Bartolotta and Chris Gebhard, both of which are expected to include conflict over skill games, one of Harrisburg鈥檚 thorniest issues.

Skill games are slot-like machines common in bars and convenience stores that exist in a legal gray area. Gebhard of Lebanon County sponsored that skill games supporters oppose, while Washington County鈥檚 Bartolotta has been a vocal critic of the industry. The two incumbents have been by a political group funded by the conservative organization Citizens Alliance of Pennsylvania.

Citizens Alliance has in turn skill games developer and distributor Pace-O-Matic. Citizens Alliance has primary campaigns against incumbents.

Capitol insiders expect Pace-O-Matic and Citizens Alliance to be active in this year鈥檚 Senate GOP primaries, although neither group answered Spotlight PA鈥檚 questions about their efforts or relationship with each other, and there have not yet been enough campaign finance disclosures to assess their spending in the primary.

Both challengers in these races have sought to communicate strong conservative bona fides. Gebhard鈥檚 opponent, professional cowboy Clovis Crane, calls himself 鈥淭HE Conservative Republican for District 48鈥 on his campaign website. Bartolotta鈥檚, masonry firm owner Albert Buchtan, boasts a 鈥渃onservative platform and principles鈥 and decries career politicians.

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Still, Senate Republicans say they are 鈥渃onfident that Republican primary voters will see through the lies and false narratives.鈥

鈥淪pecial interest groups will spend big money and create false narratives for one reason only, their own interest, and Pace-O-Matic and Citizens Alliance are no different,鈥 Senate Republican campaign committee spokesperson Michael Straw said in a statement to Spotlight PA.

Not every primary centers on ideology.

Judy Trombetta, a Haverford Township commissioner and former legislative staffer, is challenging state Rep. Greg Vitali (D., Delaware), a 33-year incumbent and vocal champion of environmental issues.

Trombetta told Spotlight PA she doesn鈥檛 differ much from Vitali in terms of the issues. However, she thinks she can bring energy and a fresh perspective to the office. For instance, she argued Vitali should have been more active during last session鈥檚 .

鈥淎 good legislator can tackle multiple issues and know the timing is right based upon relationships and conversations,鈥 she said.

Below are some of the primaries involving state House and Senate incumbents that may be competitive or are otherwise worth watching:

State Senate

State House

Primaries in districts with competitive general elections

The winners in these seats will carry their party鈥檚 standard for the November election in key swing districts that will decide who controls the General Assembly next year.

But the high-profile nature of those general election races also makes party leaders reluctant to go through with bruising primaries in these districts, as they鈥檒l need all the resources they can muster for November.

鈥淭he last thing in my view that we need is a primary,鈥 state Sen. Steve Santarsiero, who also chairs the Bucks County Democrats, said at the January meeting to decide on a preferred candidate in the 16th Senate District, according to . Democrats aim to flip the upper chamber for the first time since the 鈥90s, making this a key race.

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However, the party couldn鈥檛 agree, and two candidates are competing for the Democratic nomination.

Republicans face a similar situation in the 36th Senate District in northern Lancaster County, which flipped from Republican to Democratic control in a 2025 special election upset. The GOP has blamed its candidate in that race for the loss, and party leaders are gunning to take the seat back to help preserve their majority.

The local party endorsed conservative state Rep. Tom Jones, who called for unity at the time. But others have said an outsider candidate may be a better option, according to . Jones faces a local committee person for the nomination.

Below are some of the key primaries where the winning candidates will face a competitive general election that could help decide control of the General Assembly:

State Senate

State House

Primaries in districts that likely won鈥檛 have competitive general elections

The winners in these races probably won鈥檛 face formidable challenges in November, which means there鈥檚 a good chance they鈥檒l be the people representing their districts in Harrisburg.

Because of that context, these primaries can provide some hints about the arguments motivating either party鈥檚 base, or which interest groups or factions are gaining power.

Take the 148th House District in the Philadelphia suburbs, where four Democrats are facing off. The candidates range from local officials with years of experience in government to a fresh college graduate whose campaign website promises to bring 鈥渆nergy, radical transparency, and above all, a necessary sense of urgency鈥 to governing.

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For Republicans, there鈥檚 rural Lancaster鈥檚 100th House District, which Cutler is vacating after representing it since 2006.

The two GOP candidates, businessman Dave Nissley and retired State Trooper Kelly Osborne, promise conservative governance. However, Osborne, who serves on a local school board, promises 鈥渞eal conservative results,鈥 while Nissley, who has never held elected office, promises 鈥渟ervant-based leadership.鈥

Below are some of the key primaries (all in the state House) in which the winner will likely face little competition:

BEFORE YOU GO鈥 If you learned something from this article, pay it forward and contribute to Spotlight PA at . Spotlight PA is funded by who are committed to accountability journalism that gets results.

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