A peak at the winter forecast
After three years of La Nina dominating the world鈥檚 weather patterns it appears that the El Nino pattern that developed this summer has gotten stronger and plans to stick around for a spell and this should have a pronounced effect on the winter weather pattern in the United States, including here across Southwestern Pennsylvania.
La Nina and El Nino are two patterns that develop in response to the warming and cooling of the Pacific waters near the equator. It wasn鈥檛 until the 1980s that weather scientists noticed these unusual cooling and warming trends.
At first it was the cooling of the waters that the fishermen noticed off the coast of South America and since it occurred around Christmas, the fishermen called it El Nino or 鈥淭he BOY.鈥�
Several years later another pattern with warmer waters became known as La Nina or 鈥淭he Girl.鈥� The recent La Nina pattern produced our mild and almost snowless winter last year and has brought us several mild winters.
The development of the El Nino does not necessarily mean the opposite type of weather will occur but since it has a split jet stream it tends to keep the coldest air bottled up in Canada and the Arctic.
At this point the Climate Prediction Center is looking for temperatures across the Northern tier of states to be milder than normal with precipitation also below normal. Southern states from the west coast to the east should see temperatures below normal and rainfall above average especially in the southeastern states.
This does not rule out an occasional snow for our area but the week after week of bone-chilling cold does not look like it will happen. We will get some cold spells and we can almost guarantee more snow than last year鈥檚 paltry 10 inches for the entire season.
In a normal season the Uniontown area averages 40 inches and Pittsburgh gets 44 inches. Our mountain area due to its increased elevation and colder temperatures averages from 75 inches to 100 inches per season.
As to the cold, last year was a mild winter, however you may recall Christmas day saw the afternoon temperature drop below the zero mark and the wind made it feel even colder.
For those who trust the Farmer鈥檚 Almanac, they are forecasting a colder than normal winter with lots of snow. They claim a secret formula that was developed 231 years ago and is still valid. In reality they are about as accurate as Phil the groundhog, everybody鈥檚 favorite winter forecaster who is already gathering food and getting ready to hunker down for the winter.
In the short term the weekend looks like some much needed rain and then another cool spell before we return to milder than normal for the final stretch of October.