Be careful who you believe
In his forthcoming book “Talking to Strangers,” author Malcolm Gladwell explains how the vast majority of people can’t detect when someone is lying to them. For the most part we assume that anyone we encounter is honest and forthright in what they tell us. In fact, that assumption makes the world more efficient when we all inherently trust one another to be honest. I suspect that our faith is stronger still if a person-even a stranger, or someone with authority or professed expertise-reinforces what we already believe (or hope) to be true.
Gladwell goes on to cite as an example the disgraced financier Bernie Madoff, who scammed investors out of $50 billion. Many were savvy people and firms who could not imagine that Madoff would be outright swindling them.
We are told that this is the greatest U.S. economy in history, right? Pay no attention to those five largest point drops the Dow Jones has ever seen, all over the past 19 months. They often seem to coincide with statements or decisions by President Trump — announced or delayed tariffs on Chinese imports, alleged phone calls with China, warnings to the supposedly independent Fed, threats and then peace talks with North Korea, and so on. Since February 2018, the Dow is up by a relatively meager 2.5%. The net gain from exactly one year ago is 166 points.
If you are fortunate enough to have a 401(k) savings plan, you’ve spent most of the last year and a half digging out of holes. Even your pension plan is invested in the market and feels the effect of these extreme ups and downs.
For the most part I don’t subscribe to conspiracy theories. However, if you somehow had connections within the Trump administration, you’d most likely be wealthy to begin with and could really make a killing in the stock market if you knew in advance what pronouncement was coming from the White House. I can’t help but think that the 1% and the titans of Wall Street are laughing at us commoners all the way to the bank.
At my age, I don’t do roller coasters at Kennywood anymore. I don’t have the stomach for them. The wild swings in the market somehow feel manipulated and likewise make my stomach churn. I could easily believe that we are being taken for a ride.
Bernard Quarrick
Uniontown.