Steelers 2016 Overview: Great expectations, despite adversity
PITTSBURGH — Mike Tomlin isn’t quite as in touch with his emotions as, say, Jim Leyland or Dick Vermeil, but the tears that flowed freely from the eyes of the Steelers coach last January in Denver clearly came from the heart.
Tomlin’s team was close in 2015, very close.
The Steelers saw their Super Bowl dreams dashed in the divisional round only after a costly fumble and blowing a late, fourth-quarter lead. That, despite being without their top two running backs, top wide receiver, their All-Pro center and a quarterback that was less than 100 percent.
The 2016 season will present similar challenges for the Steelers. Martavis Bryant will miss the entire season to a drug suspension and Le’Veon Bell will miss the first three games. Ladarius Green, the Steelers’ biggest signing in free agency, is nowhere close to returning after off-season ankle surgery. Bud Dupree, last year’s first-round pick, is on IR. Senquez Golson, the presumptive starting cornerback, could miss significant time for a second straight season.
In that sense, it’s situation normal in Pittsburgh.
Still, the consensus is that the Steelers have enough talent and depth – at least on the offensive side of the ball – to win the franchise’s seventh Super Bowl. If they do, the only tears this time will be tears of joy in Houston on Feb. 5.
QUARTERBACK
With Peyton Manning in retirement and Tom Brady pushing 40, Ben Roethlisberger is arguably the best QB in the game today … when he’s healthy, that is. Roethlisberger missed a career-high five starts due to assorted injuries — despite a career-low sack percentage (4.9 percent) — last season. But he’s back and appears to have shed a few pounds in the off-season. At 34, Roethlisberger still has a few years left in him but the window for winning his third Lombardi Trophy is closing. Roethlisberger should average more than 300 yards per game as he has each of the last two seasons, and some believe he can challenge Manning’s single-season mark of 5,477 passing yards. Roethlisberger has never been an MVP or All-Pro, but if he can avoid a few interceptions, the accolades could come in 2016.
Landry Jones isn’t Roethlisberger (or even close), but he’s shown he can be a decent backup if needed. Jones has displayed better poise and decision-making but if he’s in for more than a game of two, the Steelers could be in trouble. Zach Mettenberger is an upgrade as the No. 3 quarterback over Bruce Gradkowski, who was placed on IR. The Steelers had interest in Mettenberger coming out of LSU and could ascend to the No. 2 job as soon as next season.
RUNNING BACK
Between Le’Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams, the Steelers have perhaps the best duo in the league. Bell is the best all-around RB in the game and can be used as a de facto receiver either out of the backfield or split wide. When Bell finishes serving his three-game suspension he is the feature back, but there will be ample opportunity for Williams to contribute. While Bell has likely taken himself out of the running for the NFL’s rushing title, the Steelers will certainly take the 115.4 yards from scrimmage he averaged in six games last season before suffering a torn MCL/PCL. Bell’s health nearly has been overshadowed by his off-field issues, but his surgically-repaired knee appeared to hold up well in training camp and his brief preseason appearance.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Even without the services of Bryant, the Steelers maintain they still have the best receivers in the NFL. Of course, it helps to have Antonio Brown, perhaps the best player in the league regardless of position.
Brown should be around 130 catches, 1,850 receiving yards and 10 TDs, gaudy numbers but what’s come to be expected in Pittsburgh.
Markus Wheaton has shown to be a reliable No. 2 receiver and could be in for a big 2015 as he enters a contract year. The Steelers’ hope is that Sammie Coates will eventually ascend to the No. 2 spot. Coates has some of the size and speed of Bryant, but he needs to be more consistent.
Keep an eye on Eli Rogers, who was the breakout star of camp after missing all of last season with a foot injury. Rogers has developed a strong rapport with Roethlisberger and could become the best slot receiver in team history.
As No. 5 receivers go, you can’t do much better than Darrius Hewyard-Bey, a former first-rounder, who brings veteran experience and still has tremendous speed at 29.
TIGHT ENDS
The Steelers lost Heath Miller to retirement and have yet to see Ladarius Green, Miller’s heir apparent, even practice. The tight end group is the weakest link in what should be one of the best offenses in the NFL but it might not be as weak as originally feared.
Second-year pro Jesse James isn’t a finished product but has shown signs of being a better than average receiver. If James can improve his blocking, always a necessity for tight ends in Pittsburgh, the future is bright for the Glassport native.
Xavier Grimble has the athleticism but needs to show consistency to be counted on. David Johnson played his first four seasons in Pittsburgh and returns after spending the last two seasons in San Diego. Johnson is primarily a blocking tight end and will be used in obvious running downs.
Green is out for the first six weeks, minimally, but his return could be a boon for the offense during the stretch run.
OFFENSIVE LINE
Roethlisberger should be operating behind the best line of his 13-year career, which is saying something after three Super Bowl appearances.
As good as the line was in helping the NFL’s third-ranked offense in 2015, it should be even better this year with a healthy Maurkice Pouncey. The 2014 first-team All-Pro returns after missing all of last season with an ankle injury which required seven surgeries. Pouncey appears to be back at full speed but injuries are always a concern with the 27-year-old, who also missed all of 2013 with a knee injury.
It should help that Poucney is surrounded by a familiar supporting cast, which includes All-Pro right guard David DeCastro, left guard Ramon Foster and right tackle Marcus Gilbert. The only drama on the line is at left tackle, where Alejandro Villanueva will start his first full season. Villanueva played well after taking over for Kelvin Beachum mid-season and held off Ryan Harris in a training camp competition. Harris, who brings nine seasons experience and a Super Bowl ring from Denver last season, should provide good depth and position flexibility, particularly if Gilbert’s hyper-extended left elbow acts up. Behind the aforementioned six are Cody Wallace and Chris Hubbard.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Cam Heyward and Stephon Tuitt were the nucleus behind one of the NFL’s better defensive lines last year and should be even better this season.
Heyward (seven) and Tuitt (6.5) fell short of their stated goal of 10 sacks each but still managed to lead the Steelers, who recorded their most sacks (48) since 2010 in coordinator Keith Butler’s first season. Don’t be surprised if either Heyward, Tuitt or both earn their first Pro Bowl selections.
LINEBACKERS
The Steelers invested two of their last four first-round draft picks on outside linebackers. It’s time those picks start to pay dividends. Though they didn’t pick up the fifth-year option on Jarvis Jones, the Steelers believe the 17th pick in 2013 will be motivated by the contract snub. Early indications are that Jones has received the message. Same goes with Bud Dupree. The 22nd pick last year had four of his sacks by Week 8 but had none the rest of the way. The Steelers still can count on James Harrison and Arthur Moats, who will be part of a rotation with Jones and Dupree, but they need more significant contributions from their youngsters.
Meanwhile, inside linebacker Ryan Shazier — the 15th pick in 2014 — is a star the making. If last year’s playoff run wasn’t his breakout, this year should be. Shazier’s speed and athleticism is unmatched, but he must stay healthy. Over his first two seasons, Shazier has played in just 21 of 32 possible games.
Lawrence Timmons was the leading tackler in 2015 and is a valued leader but is slowing down a little at age 30 at a time when linebackers are being asked more and more to drop back into coverage. Timmons is in the final year of his contract and this could be his swan song in Pittsburgh.
The inside linebacker spot is deep with Vince Williams, a physical force who has shown he can be a three-down player and a possible successor to Timmons. Behind him are free agent signing Steven Johnson, Tyler Matakevich and L.J. Fort, all of whom are expected to contribute on special teams.
CORNERBACKS
The Steelers thought they had addressed their glaring need at cornerback in the draft, using three picks on the position over the last two drafts. So far, they’ve had precious little to show for it.
Senquez Golson, the Steelers second-round pick in 2015, has had his first two seasons decimated by shoulder and foot injuries. Artie Burns, this year’s first-round pick, has been hobbled by a quad injury that forced him to miss most of training camp and the first three preseason games.
Sill, that’s better than Doran Grant, last year’s fourth-round pick, who was released.
The Steelers have veteran Will Gay and Ross Cockrell, who played surprisingly well after being picked up off waivers last August, and little else. In a desperation move, the Steelers acquired the talented but troubled Justin Gilbert from Cleveland for a 2018 sixth-round pick. Gilbert was the eighth pick two years ago but has shown little as a pro.
The Steelers desperately need Burns and Gilbert to get up to speed and quick. The secondary did some good things last season, including 17 interceptions and holding opponents to just 19.9 points against, but if the Steelers are to reach Houston in February, they’ve got to do better than finishing 30th against the pass.
SAFETY
What a difference a year makes? Actually, what a difference being healthy makes. Mike Mitchell answered his critics like a tight end or receiver coming over the middle: With a loud thud.
Coming off two torn groins which limited him in 2014, his first season in Pittsburgh after signing a $25-million, free-agent contract, Mitchell was a physical, intimidating force on the back of the defense in 2015. Mitchell registered 58 solo tackles and a team-high three interceptions.
This season, however, Mitchell is the only sure thing on the last line of defense. Robert Golden has been promoted to the starting strong safety after spending his first four seasons as a special teams ace.
Sean Davis has a world of potential and was expected to push Golden for the starting job, but the injury to Golson has forced the second-round pick into playing slot cornerback.
Davis is best suited to play safety. Whether he plays there this year depends on how soon — or if — Golson returns this season. Shamarko Thomas suffered a hamstring injury late in the preseason, ruining what had been a promising camp. Thomas may never realize his third-round potential but he could fill in if needed.
FINAL ANALYSIS
If Ben Roehtlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell are healthy on offense, there’s no reason to believe the Steelers can’t compete for the organization’s seventh Lombardi Trophy.
The Steelers leave a little to be desired on defense, particularly on the back end, but if they can get pressure from their front seven, that should go a long way in negating some of the holes and inexperience in the secondary. It might be a bit much to expect the defense to replicate the 48 sacks and 17 interceptions of last season but if the Steelers are even close to those numbers, that should be good enough.
Though Cincinnati remains tough and the two games against the Bengals should be battle royales, the Steelers are clearly the class of the AFC North. The Steelers need a strong start and can’t rely on others for help to reach the postseason (see Week 17 last year between Buffalo and the New York Jets). They also must avoid the dreaded “trap game” losses (see Baltimore in Week 16 last year) which seem to happen far too routinely under Tomlin.
Winning the division, must be a priority. Earning home field advantage would be a nice bonus.
It’s not mere coincidence that in each of the Steelers’ last three Super Bowl appearances, they have avoided facing New England in the postseason for one reason or another. This year it would seem the Steelers are on a collision course with Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and the Patriots.
If the Steelers can do all of the above and finally get past the Patriots – their old nemesis — in the postseason, maybe they will find themselves celebrating in Houston on Feb. 5.
Predicted finish: 11-5