Time to predict the Draft
After all these years of setting draft odds, you would think I would know better than to make a mistake.
But I did. And got swamped. Money began pouring in on one player immediately.
I was careless with the odds, but not with the player I expected.
If you recall, I thought Charles Harris at 7-1 odds was a bit risky. I even thought I might like to plunk a little down on the Missouri pass-rusher myself.
But he isn鈥檛 the problem.
No, the guy who drew just about all the money on who鈥檒l be the Steelers鈥� first-round pick tonight, is the guy I like, Jabrill Peppers.
The money just poured in on the Michigan hybrid defensive back at 6-1 odds.
鈥淚 think that diluted test sample at the NFL Combine seals the deal,鈥� said one gleeful punter. 鈥淚 didn鈥檛 think he would fall to the Steelers until that happened. But I think he falls now. It鈥檚 just going to be up to them to draft him.鈥�
Hmmm. I hadn鈥檛 considered that.
Not all of the bettors were as gleeful.
鈥淚 love the Steelers, but that pick would make me vomit,鈥� said a fan, whom I believe to be an Ohio State alumnus.
I asked him why he bet on Peppers.
鈥淚f I鈥檓 going to be sick, I may as well make some money,鈥� he said with a sneer.
It鈥檚 a good thing I鈥檓 able to lay it all off because I like Peppers myself. In fact, all of this 鈥渟mart money鈥� has convinced me that the Steelers are going to draft Peppers tonight with their first pick.
I鈥檝e been writing about Peppers for a couple of weeks now, so you know my speil. I like him to eventually replace Will Gay in the slot and give the Steelers three safeties on the field at least 75 percent of the time. And while Peppers is learning that position, he immediately helps as a punt and kickoff return specialist and also plays dime linebacker on third-and-long. So that鈥檚 the prediction.
The rest? That鈥檚 for entertainment purposes only, of course.
First Round: Jabrill Peppers, S/CB/LB/RS, Michigan
In the second round, I鈥檓 thinking rangy ILB Zach Cunningham falls to pick 62. But I鈥檓 passing.
With Peppers already a quasi-linebacker in the slot, the need to replace ILB Vince Williams on passing downs isn鈥檛 quite as urgent.
I鈥檓 also skipping the pass-rusher here.
Yes, the Steelers need to develop an edge behind James Harrison, but the game is evolving and the more important hybrid now is that third safety. With Cameron Heyward back, and Javon Hargrave a tough pull because of his interior rush, I鈥檓 playing a hunch that the old edge 3-4 OLB/DE isn鈥檛 such an urgent need anymore. So I鈥檓 taking my man-coverage cornerback here, and there are two sleepers I like.
One, Shaquill Griffin, is 6-0, 194 and ran a 4.38 40 at the NFL Combine. He led his conference with 19 passes defensed and intercepted four passes. He鈥檚 not as well known as some others, but I learned he was one of the four unreported visitors to the South Side. Gotta love that subterfuge.
My other option is Howard Wilson, the 6-1, 184 corner from Houston. He timed at 4.57 in the 40, but is quicker than fast, as his blazing 3.94 shuttle attests. And I鈥檓 on a shuttle kick at this position right now, so 鈥�
Second Round: Howard Wilson, CB, Houston
Sorry, pass-rushers, but it鈥檚 time to turn to offense right now.
Prior to the draft, it would鈥檝e been hard to believe someone such as Chris Godwin, the star Penn State wide receiver, would be available at pick 94. But the mantra of this draft has been 鈥�100 players in the top 60.鈥� That means the third round should still have second-round value, and I鈥檓 hoping one is a receiver.
My favorite is Zay Jones, of East Carolina, but he鈥檒l be gone. The other beauties are Carlos Henderson, of Nevada, and Josh Reynolds, of Texas A&M.
Third Round: Chris Godwin, WR, Penn State
For the compensatory pick, I鈥檓 addressing a huge weakness, blocking tight end.
It鈥檒l take all of my might to pass on the big guy, Adam Shaheen, of Ashland. He鈥檚 6-6陆, 278 and looks every bit as fast with the ball as his 4.79 40. You would also expect someone his size to learn how to block like a pro eventually.
But I鈥檓 going with the guy who already knows how to block like a pro, my Mark Bruener lookalike.
Third Round Compensatory: George Kittle, TE, Iowa
Still with the offense, it鈥檚 time to draft Le鈥橵eon Bell鈥檚 backup. My guess is the Steelers have bigger plans for free-agent signee Knile Davis than most of us had supposed when he signed. The Steelers brought in only one running back for a visit, and he鈥檚 the choice here. He needs no introduction.
Fourth Round: James Conner, RB, Pitt
I鈥檓 wishing I had traded down out of the first round for an extra pick because I still have two spots to fill. I would like to take one of those small-school, speedball, pass-rush specialists the Steelers brought in for a visit 鈥� Keion Adams or Samson Ebukam. But I don鈥檛 think I can get my defensive tackle in the sixth round. In a weak DL class such as this one, it鈥檚 wise to jump a round early, so give me the Penn Hills kid.
Fifth Round: Treyvon Hester, DT, Toledo
I鈥檓 down to my last strike with pass-rushers so it鈥檚 a good thing I have an ace up my sleeve.
Speaking of Bruener, the Steelers scout is based in Seattle and has the inside track at his old school. He was able to keep an eye on the kid who was injured, didn鈥檛 work at the Combine and returned for his personal pro day out of shape.
These are all good things for a team that needs a diamond in the rough right now, because this player will either have to get in shape soon or learn how to drive a truck.
I鈥檓 guessing he鈥檒l choose the former.
Sixth Round: JoJo Mathis, DE, Washington
Let鈥檚 wrap this up with a special-teamer who鈥檒l give us depth in the backfield and play a little H-back if needed.
Seventh Round: Sam Rogers, FB/TE, Virginia Tech
The picks are:
Jabrill Peppers, S/CB, Michigan
Howard Wilson, CB, Houston
Chris Godwin, WR, Penn State
George Kittle, TE, Iowa
James Conner, RB, Pitt
Treyvon Hester, DT, Toledo
JoJo Mathis, DE, Washington
Sam Rogers, FB/TE, Virginia Tech