Bucs by Numbers: 1-0 counts have helped Bell
Jason Rollison
Pittsburgh is tied for second-to-last with Atlanta in a very dubious ISO-related statistic.
Associated Press
Josh Bell is greeted by third base coach Joey Cora after hitting a two-run home run off Washington Nationals starting pitcher Tanner Roark at PNC Park last season. The art of batting from both sides of the plate would figure to be at a premium in this age of shifting defenses and advanced analytics. But in a sport of constant change, the amount remains remarkably steady.
Rookie Josh Bell 鈥� yes, technically he is still a rookie 鈥� has been a bright spot in what has otherwise been a middling season for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
After tantalizing fans with his potential in a 46-game, 152 plate appearance 2016 cameo, Bell has turned in a fine 鈥渇irst鈥� season, one that might have ended with Rookie of the Year honors if not for Dodgers鈥� 1B Cody Bellinger鈥檚 assault on National League pitching.
Every Pirates fan or observer had to know that Bell was a solid all-around hitter with a good eye and easy swing. What was not so readily apparent was the power stroke Bell has suddenly decided to show. Bell鈥檚 20 home runs on the 2017 season trail only Andrew McCutchen鈥檚 23. The same goes for Bell鈥檚 slugging percentage (.490), which trails McCutchen鈥檚 .511 figure by only 21 points.
The power shown in Bell鈥檚 game is not just limited to round-trippers, as Bell鈥檚 47 combined extra base hits 鈥� those aforementioned home runs plus 21 doubles and six surprising triples 鈥� lead the Pirates鈥� offense.
The catalyst for Bell鈥檚 offensive progression has been seen as soon as the first pitch. His 55.1 F-Strike (first-strike) percentage leads the Pirates by a large margin. With 40.7 percent of his total pitches seen landing for balls, this should come as no surprise.
But getting to 1-0 seems to help Bell more than most hitters. On a 1-0 count, Bell puts up a 1.583 OPS (on-base plus slugging). After an 1-count, Bell鈥檚 total line of .300/.399/.594/.993 would be incredibly desirable for any hitter in any era.
For now, pitchers still seem intent on challenging Bell to get back into counts.
On a 1-0 count, Bell still sees a four-seam fastball the most with a 32.3 percent usage. That in itself is not entirely a surprise as pitchers will often use more purposeful pitches to get back into the at-bat. With a 21.4 percent two-seam fastball percentage, Bell has gotten his share of hittable pitches on 1-0.
As Bell goes along, it would be easy to see pitchers start to mix in more breaking balls, regardless of the count. For the season, Bell has seen 37.7 percent four-seamers, 15.1 percent changeups and 14.6 percent two-seamers. That leaves 32.6 percent for other pitches 鈥� curveballs, sliders, etc. That ratio will undoubtedly change as Bell鈥檚 profile grows larger. It will be up to Bell to adjust accordingly.
Which, in all honesty, he should be able to do with ease. Bell鈥檚 patient approach and work ethic to the plate has gotten him this far, and there is no reason to think it won鈥檛 propel him further when pitchers finally decide to push back
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We have previously talked about ISO in this space. For those that missed it, ISO (short for Isolated Power) takes a batter鈥檚 batting average and subtracts it from their slugging percentage to give a true indication of 鈥渞aw power.鈥�
For example, a hitter with a .556 slugging and a .300 batting average would have a .256 ISO.
As of this writing, the Pittsburgh Pirates are tied for second-to-last with the Atlanta Braves in a very dubious ISO-related statistic.
With the current National League-wide ISO rating at .171, the Pirates have just four hitters hitting at or above that rate among hitters with 150 or more plate appearances. To no surprise, Bell leads the way among Pirates hitters with a .228, narrowly edging McCutchen鈥檚 .226 figure. Newcomer Jose Osuna clocks in at .200. Bringing up the rear is John Jaso with a .185 rating.
Raise your hand if you thought Jaso would be on this list.
The absence of Jung Ho Kang surely plays a part here, but the Pirates only carrying four hitters with an ISO of .170 or higher puts them just two above the hapless San Fransico Giants 鈥� who carry two 鈥� and six behind the barnstorming Los Angeles Dodgers. In between, we find a swatch of quality teams with the Nationals and Reds carrying eight, while other NL Central rival clubs 鈥� the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers 鈥� carrying seven each.
With no resolution to the Kang visa situation in sight, power may still be an issue for the Pirates in the years to come.