Stanley Cup Final Breakdown: Nashville’s blue line is its strength. Can the Penguins’ centers overcome it?
The 2016-17 Stanley Cup Playoffs have been unique. There have been upsets, unexpected goaltending performances, injuries, overtimes and pivotal Game 7s. The Penguins and Nashville Predators have experienced some or all of the above.
It wasn鈥檛 easy, but the Penguins weathered multiple injuries, personnel moves and three formidable opponents en route to their second consecutive Stanley Cup Finals appearance. They were forced to begin this run without their number one defenseman (Kris Letang) and their starting goalie (Matt Murray). That might have been enough to sink many teams, but that just revealed the group鈥檚 character. They have found ways to win using two goaltenders and a patchwork defense that鈥檚 featured eight different players. They鈥檝e gotten big performances from up and down the lineup to eliminate the Columbus Blue Jackets (fourth best team in the league), Washington Capitals (Presidents Trophy winner) and Ottawa Senators in a hard-fought Eastern Conference final.
The Nashville Predators, the last team to secure a playoff berth, have made it past the second round for the first time in their history and will be making their inaugural appearance in the Stanley Cup Finals. They are probably a 16 seed in name only, because they are flushed with talent 鈥� specifically on their blue line and in net. They were picked by many to reach the Final ahead of the season. They were derailed at times by injuries, but once they were made whole, they started rolling. They began their run by upsetting the Chicago Blackhawks in a shocking sweep. They also beat the St. Louis Blues and Anaheim Ducks.
Each team showed an ability to evolve throughout the playoffs. Finding ways past fast, skilled opponents and physical ones. That ability to adapt and to overcome long odds will be tested again in the Final, as the Penguins try to defend their crown and the Predators hope to finish off their storybook run.
Fred Vuich/The AP file
FILE 鈥� In this Jan. 31, 2017, file photo, Penguins鈥� Patric Hornqvist (72) is congratulated by Sidney Crosby (87) after scoring a goal as Nashville Predators goalie Pekka Rinne (35) waits for play to resume during the second period of a Jan. 31 game in Pittsburgh.
Season series
The teams split the season series with each picking up a convincing win over the other. The Predators won 5-1 on Oct. 22, while the Penguins picked up a 4-2 victory on Jan. 31.
Head-to-head playoffs
The Penguins and Predators have never met in the playoffs. The teams have met 25 times in the regular season since Nashville made its NHL debut in the 1998-99 season. The Penguins lead the series 12-10-2-1.
Key injuries
Penguins: Kris Letang (neck surgery), injured reserve; Patric Hornqvist (undisclosed injury), day-to-day; Chad Ruhwedel (concussion), day-to-day
Predators: Kevin Fiala (fractured femur), day-to-day; Craig Smith (undisclosed injury), day-to-day; Ryan Johansen (thigh), day-to-day; Mike Fisher (undisclosed injury), day-to-day
Strengths
Penguins: The Penguins鈥� depth has been tested throughout these playoffs, but they have been able to overcome each and every obstacle and it continues to be a major strength. That depth shined again in the Eastern Conference final, where Chris Kunitz put together his best game of the playoffs. The 37-year-old scored his first two postseason goals, which included the series clincher in double overtime of Game 7. Their roster also boasts what is the most impressive collection of star talent remaining in the playoffs, headlined by Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel. Those three have combined for 63 points in the first three rounds and have the Penguins scoring a playoffs-leading 3.05 goals per game. Matt Murray took over for Marc-Andre Fleury in Game 4 against the Senators and has been outstanding, going 3-1 with a 1.35 GAA, .946 save percentage and one shutout. His appearance seemed to spark something in the team, as they looked a lot like the team that won the Stanley Cup last season over the past four games. They have gotten goals from 17 different players and points from 21. The Penguins also have an edge in experience, where they have seven players with more than 100 playoff games on their resumes (Crosby, Malkin, Kunitz, Fleury, Matt Cullen, Carl Hagelin and the injured Letang), while the Predators have only one (Mike Fisher).
Predators: The Predators鈥� biggest strength comes from their net on out. We鈥檒l start with goaltender Pekka Rinne, who almost singlehandedly beat the Blackhawks in the first round. He posted two shutouts in the four game sweep, allowed just three goals. In total, he鈥檚 gone 12-4 with a 1.70 GAA and a .941 save percentage in the playoffs. His play has been bolstered by what might be the best group of blue liners in the league. Former Norris Trophy winner P.K. Subban anchors a group that also features Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis and the underrated Mattias Ekholm. All four of them have averaged more than 23 minutes per game, with Subban, Josi and Ekholm averaging over 25. That foursome has combined for 11 goals and 39 points in 16 playoff games and they鈥檝e combined with Rinne to allow a league-low 1.81 goals per game. Nashville also has a deep group of forwards 鈥� lead by Filip Forsberg, Viktor Avidsson and James Neal 鈥� that have scored 2.94 goals per game (3rd in the playoffs).
Weaknesses
Penguins: As has been the case throughout the playoffs, the Penguins are still allowing too many shots on goal. They started to turn that trend in the Eastern Conference final, where they outshot the Senators in five of seven games, but they still allowed the second most shots (197) in the third round. They were outshot only five times in 24 games during their run to the Stanley Cup last season but have been outshot in 13 of 19 games through three rounds. They have also been guilty of getting off to slow starts in games and have scored only 10 first-period goals, four of which came in one game. Fatigue could also start to catch up with the Penguins after having to play back-to-back seven-game series to advance to the Final. They have now played 207 games dating back to the start of the 2015 season, more than any of their peers.
Mark Humphrey/The Associated Press
Anaheim Ducks goalie Jonathan Bernier kneels on the ice as Nashville Predators鈥� Filip Forsberg (9) and Pontus Aberg (46) celebrate a goal by teammate Colton Sissons, not shown, during the third period in Game 6 of the Western Conference final on May 22 in Nashville, Tenn.
Predators: Experience may be the biggest liability for the Predators entering the Final. They just don鈥檛 have many players who have gotten this far in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Will that cause a problem against the seasoned Penguins? Time will tell. They have also struggled on the power play, scoring on only 14.9 percent of their chances to rank 12th among the 16 playoff qualifiers. That number could get worse against the Penguins penalty kill that ranks eighth overall with an 85.5 percent kill rate, but has killed 30 of 33 dating to Game 4 against the Capitals (91 percent). The Penguins have had great success against Rinne, who has gone 1-5-2 in eight games against them, with a 3.57 GAA and .880 save percentage.
X-Factors
Penguins: Can he play or not? We鈥檙e talking about former Predator Patric Hornqvist, who missed six of seven games in the Eastern Conference final. Hornqvist has four goals and seven points in 13 games this postseason and could be a significant difference maker in front of Rinne if he is able to suit up. His big body makes it tough for goaltenders to see around him, he has quick hands around the net and he isn鈥檛 shy about shooting the puck. Hornqvist is one of the hardest workers on the roster, is a force in the corners and possesses an agitating ability that often lures opponents into taking penalties. His presence would bolster the Penguins鈥� depth even more, giving coach Mike Sullivan another option for his top six or third line.
Fred Vuich/The AP file
Nashville Predators goalie Pekka Rinne (35) makes a save on Penguins right wing Patric Hornqvist (72) during the first period of a Jan. 31 game in Pittsburgh. Hornqvist scored two goals in the Penguins鈥� 4-2 win.
Predators: The Predators are playing without number-one center Ryan Johansen, but they were able to overcome that in their final two games against the Ducks. One of the biggest factors in offsetting that loss was 23-year-old center Colton Sissons. He picked up an assist in the first game without Johansen and then picked up his game, scoring a hat trick in the clinching game to send his team to the Final. Can he continue to play at that level? That question looms large, especially because he鈥檒l be tasked with going head-to-head with either Crosby or Malkin. The Penguins look to have a significant edge at the center position in this series, which makes Sissons a big key to any success that the Predators have.
Prediction
The Predators are a very good team that has proven capable of shutting down some formidable forward groups from Chicago, St. Louis and Anaheim, but they have yet to face the Penguins on this stage. The defending champions have the experience, the depth and the goaltending to succeed, but what makes them even more dangerous is having Sidney Crosby. Sullivan has said that Crosby has an 鈥渋nsatiable desire to win鈥� and that, combined with the rest, will push the Penguins past the Predators in six games. Thus making them the first back-to-back champions since Detroit did it in 1997 and 鈥�98.