Odds on Steelers’ 1st pick
You probably have colleagues and friends like mine, always looking for that big, easy score. So you have to watch what you say.
Like that day in the media room last September when someone asked me for the line on the big high-school girls soccer game that night.
Norwin, ranked No. 1 in the nation but injured and playing in fits and spurts, was up against rival Penn-Trafford, which was healthy, underrated, playing at home, and really, really hongry.
鈥淧ick 鈥檈m,鈥� I said to surprise the questioner with my insight.
鈥淕ive me five grand on Norwin,鈥� came the immediate and equally surprising response.
Talk about fits and spurts, I was lucky to get out of that room without having bet $5,000 against my own daughter鈥檚 team.
Like I said, you have to watch what you say.
But I only give you this sordid tale 鈥� Penn-Trafford, by the way, pulled off the shocking upset 鈥� to preface this column. In it, I hope to surprise with insight not seen in the 147,329,644 mock drafts you鈥檝e already perused this offseason. But I also can鈥檛 get hammered by someone waiting in the weeds for his or her big score.
That said, I present the odds on which player becomes the Steelers鈥� first pick in the 2018 NFL draft:
Genard Avery, ILB, Memphis (20-1) 鈥� Four off-the-ball linebackers haven鈥檛 been drafted in the first round since five were taken in 2000. Could five go this year?
Avery is my puncher鈥檚 roundhouse, and in fact becomes more lively should the Steelers trade back into the second round. I initially pondered Fred Warner as the potential fifth ILB, because of his coverage skills, but if Rashaan Evans can go in the first round as a run-downs player with coverage upside, so can Avery.
The two are similar in that both were moved from defensive end (Avery more recently) and present the Steelers with a Levon Kirkland type of projection to ILB. But, Avery and Evans aren鈥檛 really similar athletically. Avery (6-0 1/2, 248) tested much better, and he ran his 40 in 4.59, which compares more closely to Ray Lewis (6-0 1/2, 235), who ran a 4.58 coming out.
Avery showed off explosiveness and agility at both the NFL Combine and on tape, and like Evans can rush the passer on third down instead of always coming off the field. The Steelers do need a run-stuffer, unless you鈥檝e forgotten their last game when their once-proud 3-4 base was forced to stay on the field by the Jacksonville coaching staff. Has their base become a weakness?
An alignment other teams will force the Steelers into? Think about that and tradition and Levon Kirkland while you鈥檙e mulling over whether to throw $10 at a potential $200 score.
Tremaine Edmunds, ILB, Virginia Tech (18-1) 鈥� No one will take this, presuming the stud will be long gone, but he鈥檚 on the board just in case teams turn away from his raw tape and the fact he鈥檚 not even 20 years old.
Derrius Guice, RB, LSU (15-1) 鈥� People who keep telling me how smart they are and how many sources they have in NFL personnel offices keep trying to give me this guy. And you know what else they do? They laugh right into my face when I say Le鈥橵eon Bell already has a competent backup in Stevan Ridley.
Yeah, right into my face. But hah yourself because we in Pittsburgh know better: The Steelers aren鈥檛 drafting a running back in the first round. Go ahead and make your stab at the food on my family鈥檚 table, but it鈥檚 a sucker bet.
Quarterback, QB, QB U (13-1) 鈥� You can note that the odds here are meant to honor the great Dan Marino, since this history lesson is too fitting to ignore.
The current Steelers鈥� quarterback situation mirrors that of 1983 when Terry Bradshaw announced he would play five more years before a playoff loss, and the 鈥渞oom鈥� was already packed with three quality 鈥� or thought-to-be quality 鈥� quarterbacks and none needed to apply.
However it happened that Bradshaw鈥檚 career came to a screeching halt matters little. What matters is that Dan Rooney used the situation and the thinking involved as a grave warning 21 years later when Bill Cowher wanted to draft a guard instead of Ben Roethlisberger.
That warning was heeded then, and should be heeded now, or at least examined. Problem is, the better of the two QB candidates, Lamar Jackson, is just too good to last until pick 28. If Jackson somehow falls, then this becomes serious. It鈥檚 highly doubtful he falls, and that leaves a guy I like a lot, Mason Rudolph, to become the sixth 鈥� the Marino 鈥� quarterback candidate in the first round. Six quarterbacks haven鈥檛 been drafted in the first round since 鈥�83. And even though Mike Tomlin and Kevin Colbert made a rare, rare trip to Stillwater, Oklahoma, to meet with Rudolph a second time, I have my doubts that things would get serious if the Steelers are staring at him when their turn comes. I would, though, love to watch heads explode all around town if they did draft him.
Ronnie Harrison, S/Da鈥橰on Payne, DT, Alabama (12-1) 鈥� Two for the price of one from the Nick Saban stable. Harrison鈥檚 name is rarely mentioned anymore since the FS-SS-slot safety-LB hybrid ran a 4.63 40 at the Combine. But he just turned 21, is 6-2 with long arms, can tackle, cover, and shows the versatility required of a reserve for a team that doesn鈥檛 have an immediate opening in its secondary. Payne is also 21, versatile, strong, fast, but plays a position that鈥檚 well stocked. I only included him because I know the Steelers like him and have recently hired his college position coach.
Isaiah Wynn, OT-OG, Georgia (11-1) 鈥� The Steelers don鈥檛 need a starting offensive lineman, and the interior has at least one starter-ready reserve. But what happens if a tackle gets hurt? Are you sure about Jerald Hawkins? And Hawkins isn鈥檛 guard-capable. In fact, they don鈥檛 have a tackle-guard who majors in tackle. Wynn, though, represents a championship-level swing tackle as well as a starting guard in case of injury.
Cornerback (10-1) 鈥� Boy, I鈥檓 being generous this year with another entire position listed with double-digit odds. The primary reason is that I can鈥檛 figure out whether Josh Jackson, Isaiah Oliver, Mike Hughes or Jaire Alexander will be the one to fall to 28.
You know, this group could鈥檝e been a lot more useful to the Steelers in the past 20 drafts or so when they were actually looking for cornerbacks. But they鈥檙e seemingly well-stocked now. It鈥檚 just that this position has so much quality in the late first-round area that it has to be a consideration.
Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, Boise State (8-1) 鈥� The last two first-round picks 鈥� T.J. Watt and Artie Burns 鈥� were both 8-1 shots. Vander Esch would be the Steelers鈥� pick if he lasts, but I don鈥檛 that happening. The speedbumps in the way are the Dallas Cowboys at 19, the Los Angeles Rams at 23 and the Tennessee Titans at 25. That鈥檚 too many speedbumps to give the Steelers much optimism.
Rashaan Evans, ILB, Alabama (7-1) 鈥� If it weren鈥檛 for Mike Mayock moving Evans ahead of Vander Esch in his latest rankings, I would list Evans as the big, fat favorite because ILB is the only position in the Steelers鈥� lineup with an Open For Business sign. But Mayock gets good info from NFL personnel sources, and moving a guy having a poor to non-existent workout season ahead of a bigger, faster linebacker who finished his season as strongly as Vander Esch did tells me Mayock knows something.
Perhaps Evans didn鈥檛 work out in order to get the Heath Miller treatment by teams that give him a better chance of winning the Super Bowl as a rookie. I could respect that. But my guess is that someone else needs a buck inside type with edge potential on pass downs, and told Mayock about it.
Jessie Bates, FS, Wake Forest (6-1) 鈥� I鈥檓 not expecting much action at these odds, but the gnawing in my gut that this is the guy just won鈥檛 go away. Bates told me at the Combine that he not only met with Tomlin and Colbert, but Art Rooney II as well. And then Tomlin and Colbert made a trip to Winston-Salem to dine with Bates the night before his pro day.
The Wake campus is just not a normal stop on their Alabama-Florida State-LSU-Miami-Virginia Tech-Ohio State circuit. They love going to those football bastions every year, if for nothing else but the atmosphere. Last year they jumped out to Madison, Wisconsin, and did in fact draft Watt. And this year, Bates is the best center fielder in the draft. He鈥檚 not a great tackler, but he鈥檚 similar to Eric Weddle in a lot of ways. And if the Steelers don鈥檛 draft Bates at 28, I see someone around 37 鈥� where Weddle went in 2007 鈥� selecting this redshirt sophomore.
Justin Reid, S, Stanford (4-1) 鈥� He might not be a center fielder 鈥� which is what the Steelers lack more than anything else in their secondary 鈥� but Reid would help sooner than would Bates, because Reid, as a top reserve, could learn center field on pass downs when they move Morgan Burnett to linebacker; or, Reid could step in on sub-packages for a game with a strong man-coverage plan; or, Reid could learn strong safety and become the playmaker at the position that every Steelers Super Bowl entrant has had.
One question the Steelers would never ask Reid is this: Will you kneel in support of your blacklisted older brother? I really doubt brass cares about his politics, but they certainly don鈥檛 want to roil this topic after it鈥檚 been settled by the leaders of the locker room. However, the kid can play.
Jim Wexell is the publisher of SteelCityInsider.net.