Can the Steelers control the pace by running the ball?
MEMORABLE SERIES MOMENT
Patriots 39, Steelers 26
Nov. 14, 2010 at Heinz Field
The Patriots came to Pittsburgh off a stunning loss in Cleveland to set up this showdown of 6-2 teams. The Steelers were without defensive ends Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel, and once again deactivated receiver Antonio Brown, who had only one catch for six yards at this point in his rookie season. The Patriots had their own rookie pass-catcher in tight end Rob Gronkowski, who caught a 19-yard touchdown pass from Tom Brady on the Patriots’ first possession. It was the first of three TDs that day for “Gronk” as the Steelers fell behind 10-3 at halftime. Brady and Gronkowski hooked up for another touchdown to open the second half, and, after Jeff Reed missed a 26-yard field goal attempt, Brady drove the Patriots for another touchdown and a 23-3 lead. Ben Roethlisberger hit Emmanuel Sanders to cut the lead to 23-10, but Roethlisberger’s only interception that Sunday night was returned for a touchdown by James Sanders to put the game away, 29-10, with 8:32 remaining. The Patriots didn’t lose again until their first playoff game, to the New York Jets, whom the Steelers beat the following week to advance to the Super Bowl.
TALE OF THE TAPE
“Boy oh boy, I wish I could jump in and say, yep, the Patriots are falling apart, but what stood out to me this week on tape is, dadgummit, their O-line has improved. Man, it’s improved. The left guard, Joe Tuney, I always used to call him the pidgeon. He is no longer the pidgeon. He’s stronger, better balanced and coming into his own. Dave Andrews, the center, is probably a matchup that goes in favor of the Steelers, but Shaq Mason is an outstanding run-blocker, Marcus Cannon has settled in at right tackle, and the big thing is Trent Brown at left tackle. He’s a biscuit under 400 pounds but he moves and covers a lot of space. This is an offensive line that stays on its feet, and in Sony Michel they have a running back I like.” — Steelers Radio analyst Craig Wolfley.
TOP QUESTION
Can the Steelers control the pace by running the ball?
Le’Veon Bell is having a good laugh at the Steelers’ running game right now with James Conner injured. But former Patriots RB Stevan Ridley wants to have the last laugh. He told reporters he’s had this game circled because of the way the Patriots discarded him after a knee injury during his fourth season of service, and Ridley’s been running hard at practice this week. The Patriots are susceptible to running games, particularly on the road. Their four losses all occurred on the road, and in those four games the Patriots allowed rushers 5.3 yards per carry. Ridley hasn’t shown that kind of ability yet, but he hasn’t had much of a chance. He might be the Steelers’ best chance to end their three-game losing streak.
THREE QUESTIONS: With FS SEAN DAVIS
Q: If you’re in position on Gronkowski, does that really matter with his size?
SD: “He’s a beast, man. His catch radius is crazy. In playing him last year, some plays I was doing everything right, playing true to my leverage, playing tight coverage, and he still made the catch. That’s football. That’s Gronk. When you’ve got a beast like that, stuff like that’s going to happen. As a DB, you just have to have a next-play mindset and don’t let it frustrate you.”
Q: They were losing by five with 2:06 left at their own 23. Brady went to Gronkowski three plays in a row, for 26, 26 and 17 yards, with you in coverage, and it set up the winning touchdown. How long did that disappointment linger for you?
SD: “It’s been lingering in this room, in the DB room, and especially for me. I’ve been trying to get my run back. But it’s a little different this year. I’m going to be playing deep, and I have to make sure those deep shots that Gronk got on me last year, he’s not going to get this year.”
Q: Did Mike Tomlin give you any words of encouragement after that game?
SD: “Nah. Probably just ‘Welcome to the league.’ But, no, I’ve grown from that. I’ve become a better player. I feel as a unit we’re growing and this will be a good game to test it.”
GAME BREAKDOWN
What to look for from the Steelers this evening at Heinz Field:
ON OFFENSE
Marcus Gilbert keeps guaranteeing that he’ll return, but another practice week has passed without the right tackle. This will be his eighth straight absence, ninth overall, but the Steelers have been able to run behind his replacement, Matt “Anchor” Feiler. Even with Gilbert out, the Steelers average 4.55 adjusted yards — per a complex formula by Football Outsiders — per carry through right tackle, and 6.63 per carry around right end. The latter number ranks first in the NFL. The Patriots, meanwhile, allow 5.32 adjusted yards per carry at their left side, 24th in the league, so the sweet spot is centered around Feiler. Expect the Steelers to utilize their short passing game and tight ends if the Patriots do the expected and bracket both Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
ON DEFENSE
The Steelers are healthy and making subtle changes to improve their man coverage with Artie Burns and Cameron Sutton expected to replace Coty Sensabaugh and Mike Hilton at right cornerback and nickel back. The Steelers have trouble defending tight ends and slot receivers, and Gronkowski and Julian Edelman might be the best combination they’ve faced yet. “It’s almost evil how devious they can be in some of their route combinations,” said Wolfley. “They’ll run the tight end up the seam and they’ll flood a defender with numbers and put him in conflict where anything he does is wrong. It’s really amazing because they will put this guy in conflict to the point where he has the possibility of three different guys and he could be wrong on all three if he jumps on any of them.”
PREDICTION
The writing on the wall says same ol’, same ol’. The Steelers haven’t improved their secondary enough to face a Patriots arsenal that’s added Michel, Josh Gordon and Cordarrelle Patterson. But the numbers aren’t showing there’s all that much to fear. The Patriots are 3-4 on the road this season, and in their last five games, against mediocre .462 competition, they’re allowing 5.7 yards per carry. The Steelers in fact have been much better at the lines of scrimmage, in spite of rushing for only 3.2 per carry in their last five games. The Steelers are far more motivated than a Patriots team with a two-game divisional lead and has won five straight in the series. Let’s follow that flow, take a contrarian position, and see if ex-Patriot Ridley embodies that Pittsburgh desperation and does what needs to be done against that Patriots run defense. … Steelers, 30-21.
BY THE NUMBERS
3.0: Ridley’s yards-per-carry in the four seasons since being released by the Patriots because of torn knee ligaments.
4.3: Ridley’s yards-per-carry in his four season with the Patriots.
6: Number of two-game losing streaks by the Patriots in the last 10 years. They’re 27-6 after a loss during that time.
45.1: Average snaps per sack allowed by Alejandro Villanueva. According to Pro Football Focus, that’s the best in the NFL for tackles with over 400 pass-blocking snaps.
113: Brady’s passer rating in 13 career games against the Steelers. He’s 11-2 in those games, which includes three playoff games. This season, the 41-year-old’s passer rating is 98.2, a touch better than his 97.6 career rating.
DOWNLOADS
n Brady’s not aging, and neither, seemingly, are Gronkowski and Edelman. Gronkowski appears to have been slowed this season by ankle and back injuries, but he’s averaging 4.3 catches for 64 yards per game. Coming into this season, he had been averaging 4.6 catches for 70 yards per game, so there’s not much of a statistical different. Edelman, 32, and coming off a season lost to a torn ACL, is averging 6.2 catches for 69 yards per game. In the previous four seasons since a full-time starter, Edelman averaged 6.5 catches for 70 yards per game. Again, not much is different.
n The Patriots were in such dire need of pass-rushing help last season, they picked up 39-year-old James Harrison and played him in 61 percent of their defensive snaps in the playoffs. Harrison retired, and the Patriots have Dont’a Hightower back from his 2017 injury, but they didn’t make any other changes to their front seven. Last year’s 31st-ranked run defense allowed 4.7 per carry. They’re now allowing 4.9 per carry, and are 29th with only 24 sacks. Left defensive end Trey Flowers is their leader with 6.5.
n The Patriots have had some big kickoff returns from Patterson. The former Minnesota first-rounder was acquired last spring in a flop of late-round draft picks with Oakland, and the No. 3 receiver and sometime running back is averaging 30.2 yards per return. But it’s the only bright spot for a Patriots special teams group that ranks 21st in punt returns and 29th in both kickoff and punt coverage. The Steelers are fifth in kickoff coverage and dead last in punt coverage.
n Over the last decade, the Steelers have drafted, on average, at 24.2, and the Patriots at 28.6. They are the highest averages, and lowest draft slots, in the league in that time. Blame the quarterbacks for keeping these two teams afloat, and for keeping each from drafting game-changers on defense and enough leftover speed for special teams.
n Steelers wide receivers Brown and Smith-Schuster are on pace to finish their seasons with 106 catches for 1,308 yards and 112 catches for 1,519 yards respectively. They would become the first receiving tandem in team history with at least 100 catches and 1,000 yards apiece, and they would become the sixth such tandem in NFL history. The greatest all-time tandem statistically is Detroit’s 1995 duo of Herman Moore and Brett Perriman, who combined for 231 catches and 3,174 yards. Scott Mitchell was their quarterback. Steelers GM Kevin Colbert was their pro scouting director.
PARTING SHOT
“It’s not a jab at them. I’m an honest person. I’m up front. But this game’s been circled on the schedule a long time.” — Ridley.