Analyzing impact Dickerson will have on Pirates’ lineup
(The following is an excerpt from 鈥淧irates Guide 2018 鈥� the ultimate Pirates season preview book,鈥� which goes on sale today. Brought to you by the same folks behind Piratesbreakdown.com, featuring frequent 缅北禁地 baseball contributor Jason Rollison, 鈥淧irates Guide鈥� aims to serve as the definitive field guide to the 2018 Pirates. For more information, please visit piratesguidebook.com)
The Pittsburgh Pirates bolstered their lineup 鈥� and their potential to increase upon a second-worst in MLB 151 home runs in 2017 鈥� by acquiring slugger Corey Dickerson. He of the 51 combined dingers over the past two seasons, Dickerson instantly transforms the Pirates鈥� lineup from one looking to replicate Andrew McCutchen鈥檚 lost production to one that more closely resembles a legitimately powerful lineup.
Of course, Dickerson鈥檚 power contributions will not materialize in a vacuum. Dickerson will exchange 81 games at Tropicana Field for a half-season at PNC Park, and the effects a change in scenery might have on his power stroke cannot be discarded completely.
Will his left handed power still play at PNC Park, as many suspect?
In 2017, hitters launched 198 home runs at The Trop agnostic of batter handedness, giving the venue a ranking of 20th among the 30 parks in Major League Baseball. PNC came in at 29th with 154 Bowser and non-Bowser blasts.
If we limit our findings to left-handed hitters, the tale is largely the same. 62 home runs were launched in Pittsburgh from southpaw bats, the 28th highest total.
On the surface, it would seem that PNC Park has earned its reputation. However, Pirates GM Neal Huntington feels differently as evidenced by his comments to reporters 鈥� including The Athletic鈥檚 Rob Biertempfel 鈥� that the front office is aware of the supposed benefits facing left-handed hitters in Pittsburgh.
鈥淚 can鈥檛 say we go out of our way to find left-handed power,鈥� Huntington said. 鈥淏ut we certainly are cognizant of the advantage left-handed power can have in our park and we do try to find it when it鈥檚 available.鈥�
Huntington is referencing the relatively short 鈥� 320 feet 鈥� porch in PNC Park鈥檚 right field. Laying opposite the cavernous left field that gives way to a unique left-center alley, the Clemente Wall is a warm and inviting locale for left handed power hitters to do what they do best 鈥� pull the ball and deposit it into the seats.
A quick look at a three-year spray chart of home runs hit at PNC Park (encapsulating the 2015 through 2017 seasons) shows that left-handed hitters do highly prefer this method.
Many of these dingers weren鈥檛 exactly Giancarlo Stantonesque screamers, with plenty of home runs seen with a more modest exit velocity. Further, the aforementioned wall is not much of a hindrance, as the 28.6 degree average launch angle for a home run from a left-handed hitter to PNC鈥檚 right field would suggest. That figure is well within the accepted 25-35 degree 鈥渟weet spot鈥� for home runs, but not necessarily extreme.
Perhaps Huntington was half-right. While PNC Park does seem to carry a reputation as a prickly place to hit a home run overall, left-handed hitters clearly have a path to maintain their power numbers at the very least, especially in light of the emphasis placed on launch angles in today鈥檚 game.
Other metrics may actually paint a similar picture.
Baseball Prospectus publishes 鈥減ark factors鈥� for each MLB venue on a variety of batted balls 鈥� ground balls, flies, singles, doubles and home runs 鈥� and splits those factors out for left and right handed hitters. The result is a ranking of 60 sets of factors (two for each venue 鈥� one for left and one for right handed batters) across all of baseball鈥檚 venues. For reference, each factor is set so that a score of 100 is considered 鈥渁verage.鈥�
If we limit our search through these park-based HR factors to left handed hitters only 鈥� a noble endeavor as we are attempting to determine how well Dickerson鈥檚 power will translate to PNC Park 鈥� Tropicana Field ranks as the 27th best ballpark for left-handed power hits with an HR factor of 89. PNC Park ranks higher, but is closer to the middle of the pack. With a 21st highest ranking due to a HR factor of 96 for left-handed hitters, BP鈥檚 data may prove Huntington鈥檚 assessment to be correct after all.
Dickerson will still have to shake off the step backwards that he took in 2017鈥檚 second half, in which his wOBA (weighted on base average, a widely adopted method to measure offense per plate appearance) dropped down to .290 from his .376 first-half figure and his ISO (isolated power, taken when subtracting one鈥檚 batting average from his slugging percentage) also dipped 69 points to .167.
Though it may be a lot to ask at this point in his career, Dickerson would also greatly benefit from a drop in strikeout rate. A modest decrease from his 24.2 percent rate could mean a multitude of better pitches to tee off on. If he can get ahead in the count, the berth across Dickerson鈥檚 wOBA is quite wide. When ahead over the past two seasons, the 28 year old carries a .493 wOBA, against a .234 rate when he falls behind. That is a 259 point swing.
If we contrast that to MLB-wide rates over the past two years, we see a 212 point difference in wOBA when hitters are ahead of the count versus when they are behind (.225 wOBA for MLB when behind, .437 when ahead).
Getting ahead in the count simply means more to Dickerson than others.
A myriad of other factors could be presented to illustrate how Dickerson can or cannot replicate his power production from 2017.
Playing 81 games at PNC Park, while still significant, is clearly not as much of a factor as one may initially believe.
(鈥淧irates Guide 2018 鈥� the ultimate Pirates season preview book鈥� is available at Amazon.com in e-book and paperback format.)