Mythbusting Trevor Williams
As a thought exercise, let鈥檚 assemble the perfect starting pitcher. Or, as close as we can get to it, anyway.
What鈥檚 the first thing you鈥檇 graft on to this Frankenstein鈥檚 monster of a hurler? Would you go straight to velocity and gift him Noah Syndergaard鈥檚 four-seamer? Value breaking stuff? How about a Clayton Kershaw in-his-prime curveball? Would you rather select pinpoint Maddux-esque control or would you be lured astray by Randy Johnson鈥檚 strikeout ability? Thinking long-term now, how about the longevity and overall whimsicality of the great Bartolo Colon?
As fun as it is to think about what a 鈥減erfect pitcher鈥� can take from these names and so many more in the rich history of baseball, at the end of the day, the perfect pitcher needs just one ability: getting hitters out.
And no one did that on the 2018 Pirates as the season wore on better than Trevor Williams. Over nine magical starts from July 11 to Sept. 3 of last year, Williams allowed just four earned runs across 54.1 innings. His outings became appointment viewing for a club that 鈥� at the time this stretch started 鈥� saw its fans鈥� interest swiftly fading. This masterful stretch was part of a second half that saw Williams put it all together. His final marks of a 1.38 ERA/1.07 WHPI and 2.75 Strikeout-to-Walk ratio after the All-Star break showed a pitcher who may have pitched his way into being the best version of himself.
No, Williams will likely never have a defining characteristic that folks writing baseball analysis in the future can glom onto for a catchy intro. But, yes, he did learn how to get major league hitters out on a consistent basis in 2018. That much is clear.
Yet to hear some tell it, Williams is a sure-fire regression candidate. 鈥淭here is no way that he can do it again,鈥� they proclaim. It was all smoke and mirrors, you see. While the podcast host who moonlights as a pitcher might still be an effective back of the rotation starter in their eyes, this contingent treats that second half as a mirage rather than salvation for a pitcher who was traded for an executive.
Are they right? Are they wrong? The jury is out, but we can venture an educated guess by myth busting the common misconceptions surrounding Williams.
Myth No. 1: His lack of a four-seam velocity disqualifies him from being consistently effective.
Yes, Williams does not have blazing stuff 鈥� his four-seamer averaged just 91.80 mph in 2018 while his sinker came in at 89.37. Yet, there have been many that have found effectiveness with less. Williams clearly fits that mold.
Among all starting pitchers in 2018 that threw a four-seamer between 90 and 94 mph in 2018 鈥� while facing a minimum of 250 batters 鈥� Williams carried the best wOBA against those four-seamers at .277. If we apply those same parameters to his sinker/two-seam fastball, Williams clocks in at sixth best overall with a .290 wOBA. While not a classic out pitch by any means, it is worth noting that Williams rang up 71 of his 126 strikeouts on a four-seamer.
By all accounts, Williams鈥� four seamer is unremarkable in many ways. We鈥檝e mentioned the lack of velocity, but we can鈥檛 forget that the pitch also lacks deception with a 16.98 percent whiff per swing rate and carries below-average spin of 2,172 rpm. He works the edges of the strike zone well enough 鈥� 17.9 of his four-seamers thrown on the edges result in a strike (the league rate in this regard is about 18.5 percent 鈥� but the real proof in this pudding comes from batted ball data.
Among all starting pitchers who faced at least 100 batters in 2018, Williams ranks fourth in percent of four-seamers hit for 鈥減oor鈥� contact as per Statcast and 65.7 percent of his four seamers that were put in play were hit poorly, regardless of location, count, situation or any other filter.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder as they say, but anyone who is beholding the effectiveness of a four-seam fastball must recognize the allure inherent in Williams鈥� offering, even if they must squint to see it.
Myth No. 2: His secondary pitches don鈥檛 play up.
Aside from his fastballs, Williams comes to play with a slider, change and very seldom used curve.
Williams鈥� slider doesn鈥檛 have the bite that you might see with Jameson Taillon鈥檚 or Chris Archer鈥檚 versions, but it has its fair share of move. On average, MLB sliders show six inches of horizontal movement and 41 inches of vertical drop. Williams clocks in at seven and 37 inches, respectively. Hitters tag it for a .272 wOBA, though this is a bit of a lucky figure for the right-hander as the xwOBA on the pitch came in at .302.
Thus far we鈥檝e established that the slider is a capable enough pitch, but there are two hidden factors that increase its effectiveness. First is that the release point for Williams鈥� slider 鈥� and all of his pitches 鈥� stays very consistent at about 5.5 feet off of the ground. This is desirable for any pitcher, and it is doubly true for Williams. Maintaining a consistent release point can add a bit of deception, and he needs every bit that he could get (who wouldn鈥檛?).
Secondly, Williams doesn鈥檛 put the pitch in spots where it has less chance to succeed. The pitch was seen 15.02 percent of the time overall in 2018, and only six percent of those sliders thrown were offered to left-handed hitters. With a below-average spin of about 2,100 RPM and an average velocity of 81.1 mph, Williams鈥� slider could spell trouble against left-handed hitters who might be able to track it a bit better coming out of the hand. That鈥檚 not the case with right-handed hitters, and Williams seems to know better than to tempt fate.
The secondary pitch we really should be talking about is Williams鈥� changeup.
There鈥檚 an old adage in baseball that says you should never throw a changeup to a same-sided batter. It鈥檚 almost in the unwritten rules category 鈥� you just don鈥檛 do it. But several teams have bucked that trend in recent years, and Williams is following their lead.
But first, let鈥檚 set the table. Williams threw the most changeups by volume (418, besting second-place Ivan Nova鈥檚 298) and percentage (15.4 percent, though Nick Kingham (14.4) and Joe Musgrove (13.9) both nipped at his heels. Right-handed hitters carry a .275 xwOBA against the pitch, making it an effective, well, change of pace.
Williams is clearly comfortable with the pitch as a weapon against righties, and suddenly a pattern is clear to see. Williams鈥� secondary pitches are less 鈥渙ut pitches鈥� than they are simply a utility by means to get hitters out.
Myth No. 3: Trevor Williams will definitely (Regress to the mean / Continue to pitch well) in 2019.
This last myth may be a surprise to you, but upon reflection, it shouldn鈥檛 be.
There has simply not been enough seen in Williams to intelligently predict which way his 2019 season will turn.
For all of his strides, we are still talking about a pitcher who is coming off of his first full-season as a starter, and one that still walked a full three hitters per nine innings last season.
Perhaps most damning to Williams鈥� chances of repeating his performance 鈥� or coming close to it 鈥� is his pitch mix coupled with location. Williams threw the four-seam fastball 50.6 percent of the time. Despite the characteristics we rattled off above, that鈥檚 still an untenable situation to be in for a pitcher who does not carry much deception.
The right hander compounds this by throwing 44.7 percent of his pitches on the edges of the zone, higher than the MLB-wide rate of 39 percent. Perhaps that would explain why his F-Strike (first strike, or starting off a batter at 0-1) of 60.1 percent is a full percentage point lower than the MLB-rate.
He does a good job at getting hitters to swing at pitches out of the zone (31.4 percent, a modest uptick over the 30.6 MLB rate), but those swings make contact at a dramatic seven percentage point higher mark (71.4 percent) over the rest of qualified MLB starters (61.3 percent).
What this does is create an environment that if Williams isn鈥檛 incredibly fine with his control, or if he gets a few less calls here or there, he puts himself in a position to fail. Williams already carried the highest amount of pitches thrown by a 2018 Pirate starter that will return in 2019 at 26.6 percent. It could be worse, as Williams鈥� .362 wOBA when hitters are ahead is miles better than the MLB-wide .420 rate for qualified starters. But it can easily be worse also.
It could be worse or it could be better鈥 can think of no other axiom that can better describe the one Pirates starter on whom the team鈥檚 starting rotation can swing so mightily. 2019 is still a shapeless void as of this writing, but let鈥檚 take the preceding 1,500-some odd words to bust wide open the myth that Trevor Williams Is automatically going to regress. Because there is certainly enough there to show that the opposite may just be true.