Setting the odds on Steelers’ first-round pick
Sometimes you nail them, like in 2011 when I had scant 3-1 odds on the Steelers drafting Cam Heyward with the 31st pick of the draft.
But sometimes you fail them. I didn鈥檛 have Bud Dupree or Terrell Edmunds on the tote board at all in the years they were drafted.
Most times, though, I鈥檝e had the Steelers鈥� first-round draft pick pegged at about 8-1 odds, so that may be the place to make your money. Over the past 10 drafts, I鈥檝e had Ziggy Hood, David DeCastro, Artie Burns and T.J. Watt at 8-1 odds. Ryan Shazier was 9-1 and climbing at the time he was picked.
This year figures to be as difficult as last year鈥檚, when I should鈥檝e had better awareness of Edmunds at pick 28. The buzz was in the air, but I chose to ignore it the same way I鈥檓 ignoring Jerry Tillery, Noah Fant and DeAndre Baker this year. Not that there鈥檚 any Steelers buzz about those three, other than they would fit.
But this year, even with the Steelers picking at a more predictable 20th spot, the chances of them trading up or down has opened up the tote board to some 40 players. That was what I took away from the Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin press conference Monday.
Colbert discussed trading up to answer the many questions about the Steelers going and getting Devin Bush or Devin White. But Colbert repeatedly gave me the vibe that he wants to trade down.
The latter makes sense because of the many defensive playmakers being graded in the 25-50 range. I can actually see a trade down and then a trade back up for a team that can definitely use all 10 of its picks, if not more, to re-stock the depth chart (and special teams) of a franchise that鈥檚 been drafting 24th on average the last 10 years.
So let鈥檚 get to it.
Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State, 15-1 鈥� Twenty years ago this weekend the Steelers had Jevon Kearse on the phone 鈥� as they drafted Troy Edwards. Just a reminder for those who want to discount a freak of a 4-3 defensive end because he 鈥渄oesn鈥檛 fit the Steelers鈥� 3-4.鈥� SMH. Sweat鈥檚 rumored to be falling because some teams have taken him off their boards due to an enlarged heart. Hey, the Steelers could use some enlarged heart over there on the blind side, but it鈥檚 unlikely they鈥檒l side with the 85 percent who find no medical issue with Sweat. If there鈥檚 a 15 percent chance a player鈥檚 medically unfit, we can count the Steelers in that group. Yes, it鈥檚 unfortunate; just hope this guy doesn鈥檛 wind up with a division rival the way Kearse did.
Devin White, ILB, LSU, 14-1 鈥� Only on the board because it鈥檚 obvious the Steelers covet him. He鈥檒l probably be gone, but if he slips a bit, and the Steelers don鈥檛 mind trading a second and next year鈥檚 Le鈥橵eon Bell comp pick, they could end up with this guy.
Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma, 13-1 鈥� Not that the Steelers would attempt to troll an entire family, it鈥檚 just that Antonio鈥檚 cousin runs a 4.33. At least that was his old time. He didn鈥檛 run this draft season because of a Lisfranc injury that doesn鈥檛 seem to worry anyone. The Steelers need a speed receiver, but, again, the injury won鈥檛 sit well with them. Neither will the AB look in Marquise鈥檚 eye.
Brian Burns, OLB, Florida State, 12-1 鈥� Might be worth an Elaine Benes sawbuck here. This is the perfect Steelers OLB. He鈥檚 20 years old, can rush and cover, and sub-package defenses would allow him on the field as a third OLB. His drawback is power at the point, but Burns gained 21 pounds and still ran in the 4.5s at the NFL Combine. Decent shot at falling, too.
Greedy Williams, CB, LSU, 11-1 鈥� Tomlin passing on an LSU corner who鈥檚 over 6 feet and runs under 4.4? Yowza. But if Tomlin listens to his analytics department, I鈥檓 sure they鈥檝e shown him the mass burial ground of skinny CBs who鈥檝e busted out. Some concern about Greedy鈥檚 passion for the game, too.
Juan Thornhill, S, Virginia, 10-1 鈥� Can you play free safety? That鈥檚 what Tomlin asked Thornhill at the Combine. They also bantered about being 鈥淰irginia men鈥� and Thornill told Tomlin that he鈥檚 a friend of last year鈥檚 鈥淰irginia man鈥� who started at strong safety as a rookie. The Steelers need a free safety, and Thornhill, like Justin Reid last year, isn鈥檛 that player yet, but he has all of the traits. He just needs more experience and coaching to hone his instincts. This is a trade-down option for a high school state championship point guard and quarterback. Thornill鈥檚 13 career interceptions while being used all over the Virginia back-seven speak to not only his ball skills but his versatility.
Darnell Savage, S, Maryland, 9-1 鈥� Like Thornhill, Savage could play cornerback or nickel slot or sub-packages as one of three, four or five safeties on the field in this age of hybrids. This particular hybrid will remind you of Troy Polamalu 鈥� or more precisely Bob Sanders 鈥� with his 4.36 speed that shows up on the field as a blur. A trade-down option, but also a worthy choice at pick 20.
Nasir Adderley, FS, Delaware, 8-1 鈥� The fact that so few have this ballhawking free safety (who hits like a middle linebacker) in their top 25 tempers the odds. So does the fact that Colbert has drafted only four non-FBS players in his 19 drafts, the highest of whom was Ricardo Colclough in the second round in 2004. Colclough probably ruined Nas鈥� chances, but this is a Tomlin type at a position of need 鈥� as in, the Steelers need more interceptions. Moving Edmunds down next to Mark Barron on passing downs is the first way to get Adderley on the field. Covering slot receivers is another. A Hall of Fame cornerback鈥檚 cousin can at least do that right now.
Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple, 7-1 鈥� Here comes the cornerback run. But this is less about logic and more about steam, because Ya-Sin is the hot name associated with the Steelers right now. And I love the player. Peter King wrote the other day that it鈥檚 become common knowledge that Tomlin loves the player, too, but my guess is that Tomlin is more in love with saying his name and everyone鈥檚 living with the perception that the Steelers remain in desperate need of a cornerback. But, really, where would Ya-Sin play? Rock is a classic outside corner, and while Steven Nelson may be built like a slot corner, and played the position early in his career at Kansas City, he wasn鈥檛 very good at it. Rock, we know you鈥檙e Temple Tough, but I don鈥檛 see an immediate place for you to play, other than special teams.
Byron Murphy, CB, Washington, 5-1 鈥� The Steelers must improve upon their 78-year low of eight interceptions last season, and Murphy is the best ballhawk at this position and could probably play some slot. But while Murphy performed like a champ in his on-field Combine workout, he鈥檚 not even 5-11, ran a 4.55 40 and performs best in off-man coverage. None of that seems to fit Steelers requirements, although this guy can flat out play football.
Devin Bush, ILB, Michigan, 4-1 鈥� I hear the Steelers like this Devin better than the other, but of course neither Tomlin nor Colbert returned my call for confirmation. As Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden will tell you, only about two people in an organization really know. I think I know, but I don鈥檛 know, and I never will. However, Bush, who鈥檒l soon become the shortest linebacker ever drafted in the first round, could slip to them. He hasn鈥檛 been that productive (3.4 solo tackles per game, 1 career interception, 11 career passes defensed), but he鈥檚 fast, played at a major major, loves the game, and is the son of a former first-round safety. It all adds up for the Steelers, who鈥檝e never had issue with short players. As for the stats, here鈥檚 what someone just texted me: With Bush in the lineup 695 minutes, Michigan allowed 175 points (4.0 minutes per point allowed); with Bush out of the lineup 85 minutes, Michigan allowed 79 points (1.1 minutes per point). It adds up to the Steelers jumping up a few spots to grab Shazier鈥檚 replacement. All that tempers the odds are the 19 teams drafting ahead of them who could use a durable, highly pedigreed inside linebacker with 4.43 speed. That鈥檚 all.