The new migration
For many years, Americans moved south and west.
Tired of the cold, snow and the loss of jobs they sought out new opportunities in the sun-belt. All of this movement brought an explosion of economic and population growth in the new area and a steady decline in areas like Southwestern Pennsylvania.
With the recent ravages of climate change in the west and south some folks are beginning to entertain the idea of moving again, this time back north where there is an abundance of resources like water and infrastructure and the climate and weather is not as harsh. Water is the most critical of these resources and will undoubtedly be more so in the future. Western states frequented by ever-increasing droughts, fires and dwindling water resources have an ever increasing cause for concern and more frequent and severe storms in the south have a similar effect.
Panic has not set in yet but the beginning of summer each year now brings fear and trepidation about the upcoming, fire, drought and hurricane season. As 2020 comes to a close, it was the hottest, driest and most storm prone year in the last century and the forecast for the future is alarming. The idea of climate change and all its implications is quickly moving from denial to concern, discussion and plans for action.
After multiple years of catastrophic fire and storm losses the insurance industry is rethinking writing policies in these high risk areas. Insurance only works when the premiums of the many are sufficient to pay the losses of a few. A recent article in Reuters discussed the possibility of a taxpayer-funded program that would pay for losses caused by the largest climate-change fueled natural disasters.
I spent over 50 years in the insurance industry and simply do not see the merits of tax-payer relief, especially on multi-million-dollar coastal homes. The Federal Flood Insurance program is simply actuarially unsound and has required taxpayer bailouts in the billions. Developers and politicians push these types of insurance programs as so called economic life-boats but they are really just subsidized programs that allow developers to build in harms鈥� way. Climate change is making these areas even more risky and many damaged properties are simply rebuilt since cheap tax-payer subsidized insurance is available.
We have been here before as Americans dealt with the climate disaster called the 鈥淒ust Bowl鈥� which was the result of the expansion of the Homestead Act that offered land to settlers willing to work the marginal soils of the Great Plains. Millions took the initiative and then came the drought in the 1930s. Some 2.5 million left and headed west in search of a better life and a more favorable climate.
With the increasing heat and drought scientists fear this could happen again. Something big is going on and it may take time to fully envelop the planet and when it does there will probably be a mass migration. In our country, the south and west will become increasingly inhospitable, dangerous and hot. People will move north. The border with Canada will be the new breadbasket. Minnesota, the Dakotas, New England and the Northwest will probably fare well.
Southwestern Pennsylvania will be more like North Carolina and with our many lakes, rivers and adequate rains we should see longer and milder spring and fall seasons. Summers will be hotter and winters less cold and snowy. Lots of folks will be moving our way and it could get crowded but perhaps an alternative to many other places.